Poland’s Government Secures Parliamentary Support but Struggles with Presidential Opposition

Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk is expected to secure a confidence vote comfortably, but significant obstacles remain in his path to effective governance.

Although Tusk’s pro-European, centrist coalition holds a solid majority in the lower house of parliament, the recent election of conservative nationalist Karol Nawrocki as president poses a serious challenge. Nawrocki’s victory threatens to stall many of Tusk’s reform plans, as the president holds veto power over key legislation.

Tusk now faces resistance not only from Nawrocki—who is aligned with former U.S. President Trump and has indicated he will block reforms in areas such as abortion rights, LGBTQ+ partnerships, the judiciary, and social benefits—but also from increasing tensions within his own coalition. Some partners are concerned that Tusk’s leadership could be costing them voter support.

A spokesperson for Tusk’s largest coalition party emphasized that the confidence vote aims to put to rest any doubts about the government’s stability following Nawrocki’s narrow win. Yet, political analysts suggest that this will not easily translate into smooth governance, especially with looming presidential vetoes.

Nawrocki’s unexpected success has unsettled Tusk’s coalition, which now feels pressure to deliver on the promises that helped it win the 2023 general election. Many voters shifted away in the recent presidential race due to perceived slow progress on key initiatives. As a result, Nawrocki’s presidency may gradually weaken the government’s influence ahead of the 2027 elections.

The prime minister’s coalition lacks the supermajority needed to override presidential vetoes, and recent polls indicate it could lose its parliamentary majority to nationalist and far-right parties whose supporters were instrumental in Nawrocki’s election.

In the run-up to the vote, internal conflicts surfaced within the coalition, with some MPs blaming Tusk and his party for strategic mistakes during the final stages of the presidential campaign, including Tusk’s prominent role as the campaign’s public face. Critics argue that this did not help improve the government’s image.

In response to these challenges, Tusk is expected to present a policy agenda shaped by intense coalition negotiations, focusing on key issues such as civil partnerships, affordable housing, and healthcare. Different coalition members have proposed various priorities, including media independence, reforms in state-owned enterprises, disability support, housing funding, and restrictions on smartphone use in primary schools.

Despite the difficulties, coalition representatives say Tusk will also seek common ground with President Nawrocki, especially on defense and security matters, highlighting shared concerns about Russia and agreement on military spending. Economic issues, including deregulation, may also offer opportunities for cooperation.

Deputy EU Minister Magdalena Sobkowiak-Czarnecka expressed hope that the coalition can maintain unity and work effectively through a challenging global environment until 2027, expressing a desire for constructive collaboration with the new president.