What Happens if Joe Biden Steps Down, and Who Could Succeed Him?

What If Joe Biden Steps Down? Understanding the Replacement Process and Potential Candidates

Joe Biden has announced his intention to stay in the 2024 presidential race despite mounting pressure from Democratic donors, party leaders, and lawmakers concerned about his poll numbers and age. This situation has prompted discussions about how a potential withdrawal might play out and who could step in as a replacement.

Can Kamala Harris Automatically Replace Biden?

While President Biden could endorse Vice President Kamala Harris and leverage their campaign’s existing funds and visibility, he cannot unilaterally make her the nominee. The final decision rests with the delegates at the Democratic National Convention (DNC). Delegates, who were initially committed to Biden, could vote for any candidate after the first ballot, once Biden is no longer officially in the race.

Chris Dempsey, founder of Delegates are Democracy, points out that “from a rules perspective, it is wide open and delegates can vote for whoever they want. Politically, an endorsement of Harris might sway some delegates, but it is not binding.”

Could the Party Hold a New Contest?

If Biden withdraws, the Democratic Party might face a significant shift. Discussions have emerged about holding new primaries or town halls to determine the nominee. Democratic Representative Jim Clyburn and political consultant James Carville have suggested various formats, including “mini primaries” and town halls featuring former Democratic presidents.

However, organizing a new contest would require changes to the DNC’s rules and timelines, which would need approval from the DNC’s rules committee or its full membership. Candidates would need to secure a petition from delegates, form a campaign committee, and raise funds independently.

What is an “Open” Convention?

An “open convention” occurs when no candidate has a clear majority of delegates before the convention. This scenario would attract significant attention and could highlight party divisions, similar to the chaotic 1968 DNC in Chicago. An open convention might bring about intense negotiations and uncertainty, contrasting with the more organized Republican convention in Milwaukee.

Who Could Replace Biden?

Kamala Harris is the most likely candidate to replace Biden, given her current role and campaign presence. However, other prominent Democrats include:

• Gavin Newsom, Governor of California
• Gretchen Whitmer, Governor of Michigan
• Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky
• Roy Cooper, Governor of North Carolina
• Pete Buttigieg, Secretary of Transportation
• Gina Raimondo, Secretary of Commerce
• Sherrod Brown, Senator from Ohio
• Josh Shapiro, Governor of Pennsylvania
• J.B. Pritzker, Governor of Illinois

Each potential replacement would need to consider their own running mate choices to appeal to a broader electorate.

As discussions around Biden’s potential departure continue, the Democratic Party faces crucial decisions about its path forward and the candidate who might lead them into the 2024 election.

Biden and Harris Campaign Fund Dynamics: What Happens If Biden Steps Down?

President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris share a campaign committee that raised $270 million in the second quarter of this year. If Biden were to withdraw from the race and Harris remained on the ticket as either the presidential or vice-presidential candidate, she would continue to have access to these unspent funds.

However, federal contribution limits impose a $2,000 cap on candidate-to-candidate transfers per election cycle. This means that if Biden were to step aside, his campaign would need to offer refunds to donors. These donors could then reallocate their contributions to support the new candidate’s campaign, according to guidelines set by the Leadership Now Project.